Nintendo Switch to outsell PS5 and Xbox Series X/S in 2021, analysts predict

The momentum of the Nintendo Switch will not slow down in 2021, according to multiple industry analysts.

Despite three next-gen console launches in the PS5, Xbox Series X and Series S, a number of industry analysts still believe the Nintendo Switch will be the top-selling console this year.

NPD Group’s Mat Piscatella, Kantan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto, and Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls all told Gamesindustry.biz that Switch will once again be the year’s best-selling console.

“Despite the launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, it will be the Nintendo Switch that ends up selling the most units of console hardware in 2021,” Mat Piscatella explained.

Piscatella, however, does not believe this will be driven by a new Switch model, such as the long-rumoured Switch Pro (which other analysts predict will launch this year and drive that growth). Instead, Piscatella says it will be Nintendo’s games and promotions that allow the Switch to hold the number one spot.

Dr. Serkan Toto from Kantan Games predicts for the second year that the Switch Pro model will launch in 2021, and it’s going to be a major contributor to the console’s continued dominance this year.

“Everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment,” said Toto. “The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh, and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020.”

Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls also expects the Switch to sell the most units in 2021. According to the analyst, that’s roughly 24 million units by the end of the year, compared to around 25 million combined for both PS5 and Xbox Series X/S.

Likewise, Harding-Rolls is convinced a Switch Pro model is on the way this year.

“Last year I was unconvinced there would be a new flagship model Switch in 2020, but it makes more commercial sense to release an updated version in 2021,” he said.

The Switch was, of course, 2020’s best-selling console, owed to low end-of-life sales of PS4 and Xbox One, and a big boost from games like Animal Crossing. The PS5 and Xbox Series X/S launches could not thwart that momentum.